"WASHINGTON (AP) — A new classified intelligence assessment on Iraq says there has been significant progress in security since the last assessment was delivered in August, a senior military official said.
In most ways the new National Intelligence Estimate hews closely to the one delivered nine months ago. That document spoke of security gains since the increase in troop levels began in January 2007, the continued high rate of violence and uneven progress on the part of Iraqi security forces.
"It does not differ significantly from August's NIE," a congressional official said in describing the document.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the report is classified. They noted that many of the conclusions of the report are already reflected in public statements and press reports.
Since the August report, Sunni tribes have solidified their resistance to al-Qaeda-associated insurgents in Anbar and Diyala provinces, which has weakened the movement."
The recent hostilities in Basra were not taken into account, since the report was prepared before those hostilities occurred. However, the situation in Basra has recently stabilized. In my opinion, there are three possibilities concerning its ultimate resolution: The Maliki government militarily defeats the Sadrists instead of honoring the truces that Moqtada Al Sadr declares whenever his militia is on the ropes, the movement fizzles out as economic opportunity in Iraq continues increasing or Iraq's government continues allowing Al Sadr and his followers to continue disrupting the march toward a permanent stabilization of the security situation in Iraq. The last possibility seems to me to be the most likely one for the near future, with the second possibility becoming more likely as time goes on.
Of course there is an awful fourth possibility: Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton ascends to the US presidency on January 20, 2009, the Democrats retain both houses of Congress and the Party quickly pulls US troops from Iraq as it has promised to do.
